05/12/2011 Tips

2011-12-04T14:15:00.000-08:00

12:20 MUSSELBURGH

visiteastlothian.org Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (Class 4) (4YO plus)

Selection: Soprano 4 points win 11/8

I will try to avoid selecting favourites in this blog, but in the 12.20 at Musselburgh Soprano looks incredibly well handicapped and good value at 11/8. He exploited his lowly flat mark over the summer, notching up a double, then holding his form well off higher marks. This time last month he was reverted back to hurdles and ran out a ready winner under Henry Brooke, staying on well to land a class 3 Kelso handicap off a mark of 100. Henry Brooke who is two wins from two rides on Soprano takes the ride again tomorrow, replacing Graham Lee who took over last time out. Last time out the selection finished 2nd at Carlisle, beaten 10 lengths by the progressive Do It For Dalkey in a class 4 handicap chase. Although he was well beaten by the winner, Soprano was 9 lengths clear of 3rd and was staying on well close home. We have since seen Do It For Dalkey go close in a class 2 handicap off a 15lbs higher mark, so for the selection to finish 10 lengths behind him looks solid form, even though he did receive 5 lbs. Soprano has been dropped 1lbs for that run and this looks a weaker race, so it would be disappointing if he can't get his head in front. The selection also has another piece of form which makes him look very well handicapped. Conceding 5lbs he finished 5 lengths behind Buffalo Bob, a horse that went to achieve a mark of 134 over fences. His main rivals for today's race have serious question marks over their claims, with Bob Will and Hurricane Jack both look out of sorts at present, and Molinero having to bounce back from a poor run last time. Gavroche Gaugain looks the main threat, but he has a 7lbs rise to combat, and his stamina is not assured, as he is upped 4 furlongs in trip.

Talking Horses

05/12/2011 Tips

12:20 MUSSELBURGH